BY REV FR GERALD NWAFOR
Nigeria’s political terrain heading toward 2027 can indeed be seen as a contest shaped by four powerful forces. If you step wrongly on any of the forces, you can be obliterated the way a landmine would explode and kill you. We should be very careful how we handle the forces because all are powerful. I align myself with the opposition since it is unlawful for a just man to keep silent in the face of injustice. The man who keeps silent in the face of evil dies twice. When you refuse to confront a social injustice, you encourage it. Ogbalu nkiti kwelu ekwe, (silent means yes). I have refused to be calm regarding the economic, political, social, and spiritual situation in Nigeria today.
First is the opposition, personified strongly by Peter Obi. Every other person is a component, not the engine. Obi is the engine of any meaningful opposition in Nigeria today. His influence, particularly across the South and among younger, reform-minded voters, remains significant. Any potential alignment with figures like Rabiu Kwankwaso would represent a serious political shift, one capable of reshaping voting blocs across both the South and the North. If such a coalition becomes solid and strategic, it could challenge the traditional dominance of established power structures. We know that the result of the 2027 election has been written, but the masses would make INEC rewrite it in broad daylight.
Second is the ruling establishment, led by Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Incumbency brings structure, resources, and influence, especially through governors and state systems. However, as you can see, the perception of public dissatisfaction can become a major vulnerability. Efforts to consolidate political control across all states may strengthen the party structurally, not the masses, but in a democracy, over-centralization often raises concerns about fairness, competition, and voter trust. The thirteen governors who jumped ship to join the ruling APC (All Progressive Congress) did not move with voters. They all moved because they had dirt on them from the EFCC (Economic and Financial Crime Commission). Although some would accuse the malfunction of the PDP (Peoples Democratic Party), while others would point to the center as a connecting dot in order to receive big federal allocation (FAC). The ruling party has failed us since 1999, be it PDP or APC. The problem now is that ADC is not picking up the fire because of the greed in some political element in the party who wants to be the president by all means possible.
Third are the independent or outsider voices, represented by figures like Omoyele Sowore. These actors often challenge both the ruling party and mainstream opposition. While they may struggle with broad electoral support, they play a role in pushing alternative narratives, questioning the system, and keeping political discourse active even if their positioning sometimes appears isolated. Sometimes, their behavior is suspicious because I do not understand how someone can be calling for revolution by force and at the same time be participating in the democratic process of the same state. The amount of time Sowore is devoting to Peter Obi makes one wonder who is paying the piper. His friend Deji 360 is also fighting Peter Obi. I don’t want to believe it has anything to do with tribe but everything to do with power. As an aside, the case of Tracy Ohiri will bring down most of these hungry social media activists, including some lawyers who parade themselves as human rights lawyers. You see that $70,000 that was paid through the back door has opened the backside of many activists. I was not interested in the settlement, but after listening to the Barrister, Verydarkman, Tracy, and most of the commentariat, I have concluded that we have not seen the end of this movie titled “Tracy, Umahi, Marshal, and $70,000.” Alright, back to the issue.
Finally, and most importantly, are the Nigerian people. This fourth group is the Alpha-force. Elections are ultimately decided not by political elites alone, but by voter turnout, civic awareness, and the integrity of the process. If citizens mobilize in large numbers, resist manipulation, and demand accountability, they can redefine the outcome regardless of political alliances or incumbency power. We saw what happened in Abia State in the last gubernatorial election, where LP (Labor Party) won with a landslide. The incumbent tried all he could to change and manipulate the decision of the people, but the public stood their ground and refused to go home. Today, they are enjoying the benefit of that process. Power belongs to the people. The old definition of democracy captures it in its entirety: “Government of the people, for the people, by the people.” One may ask in Nigeria, why are the people lagging and allowing the political few to manage our resources? The people should rise and take control of what belongs to them, starting with the 2027 election.
If the people are neglected and abandoned, as the case is pointing to in today’s Nigeria, it would amount to political tension. When it is not managed responsibly, it can escalate into instability. The civil war in Nigeria was ignited by political rascality. Abubaka imprisoned the premier of the West, Chief Awolowo, and the imbroglio in the Midwest was overlooked, and the result snowballed into a military coup, and the rest was history. This concern is valid but may be overlooked again by the political class until it’s too late. The Western world said democracy depends heavily on the civility and decency of human beings. Democracies thrive not just on competition, but on restraint, fairness, and respect for institutions. It’s a game also where you win some and lose some, which is fair.
2027 has the potential to be a turning point, not necessarily because of any single candidate or alliance, but because of the growing political consciousness among Nigerians. If that energy is channeled peacefully and constructively, it can strengthen democracy. If not, it risks deepening division. The turnout in the north to welcome Peter Obi during the Sala festival is a very good development. I support alliances, but with caution. I know that Peter cannot win alone, but no alliance would allow him to be second fiddle. The game is on, it’s only 11 months more, and the vote will be cast. The people should be awake so that rats will not take away their food (Oke adiro eli ife onye mu anya).
